Saturday, May 23, 2009

The Sound of Web 3.0

We've long been fans of Tim Westergren and the Music Genome Project.  In 2003, at our East Bay Venture Capital Conference, Savage Beast Technologies (as his company was called then) was honored as the best presenting company at the event.

The business model was very different then.  The inference engine SBT built around their proprietary musical attribute database was furnished to music retailers, to recommend music to their customers based on their previous purchases.  It turned out that music retailers were going to need a lot more help than that.

So Westergren and his team repurposed the code to create the streaming internet service Pandora, which has become one of the most popular "personalized radio" sites on the web.

Meanwhile, there has been a lot of discussion about the next era of internet evolution, the so-called "Web 3.0", and what it will look like.  Observers professing expertise in the matter say it will be "semantic" and "distributed" and "mobile".  Indeed, it may be inaccurate to call it "web" anything.  The term of art in play lately is "stream".  The web is a network of sites using a shared protocol, whereas the stream is a constantly updated delivery of rich media content to a variety of user devices, not just the personal computer.

One indication of this evolution is the .tel top level domain.  It's a directory where users store and publish via granted privileges their personal, professional, and social contact information.  When this service was still in beta, we were informed that it was "beyond the browser".  It is accessible by mobile devices directly, and can be utilized by location-aware services.

We submit that Pandora is an early example of this new network paradigm.  It is semantic, inferring preferences from user behavior.  It's distributed, and can be used via internet appliances such as the Vudu set-top box.  And it's mobile, with clients available for the iPhone and other hand-held devices (although, lamentably, not for the Palm Treo, alas).

One other evolutionary dimension in the social media world is the "freemium" business model, and Pandora has been a pioneer in this, as well.  Pandora is free to use.  You just go to their site, start a station by citing a few artists or records, and it plays music that you will probably like -- and may never have heard before -- based on your selections.  Because Pandora pays royalties on these plays, it stops once per hour to confirm that you are still listening.  And, as with most free content services, it comes with display advertising on the site.

But you can upgrade to a premium subscription, which eliminates the ads and the interruptions.  We've had a premium subscription for awhile now, and at $36/year (less than a dime a day), it's one of the best deals you'll find.

Well, earlier this week, Pandora took it up a notch.  The premium subscription is now branded Pandora|One, and offers several improvements, the most immediately noticeable being a higher bitrate, up to 192Kbps, which is audibly superior if you have the broadband to support it.  But the coolest thing is the new desktop client, that runs on the Adobe AIR stack, a development platform that boasts that it is also "beyond the browser".  

It's an elegant looking utility, with an instantly comprehensible interface, especially if you're already quite familiar with the browser-based version.  Like a number of other Adobe AIR-based products (Seesmic Desktop, e.g.), it combines graphic, multimedia, text, and controls in a very compact package.  From the default view, you can play or pause, adjust volume, "like" or "unlike" a selection, or call a menu for more options, including help, bookmarking, station info, and the ability to email a station to someone, or purchase the content from iTunes or Amazon.  You can also set preferences, including display, notification, and quality parameters.

It is released as version 1.0.0, bucking the trend with many services soft-launching as "Preview" or "Beta" versions, with the implication of "unexpected results".  So far, we've been using it for several hours, and it appears to be quite stable and ready-to-ship.  Kudos to Westergren and the Pandora team for this excellent new product/service bundle.  They've weathered some rough times with the copyright and royalty battles, and like many companies had to reduce their workforce to remain viable.  With this latest development, they've taken a major step in the direction of a fee-for-service revenue stream (pun intended) that is affordable and sustainable.  Seriously, a dime a day.  You just can't beat that.

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Cliffhanger

It's interesting how two different analysts can interpret the same data and come to very different conclusions.  For example, TechCrunch, with a flair for the dramatic, concludes that venture capital is "falling off a cliff".  Author Sarah Lacy rejects the conventional wisdom that: 
“Recessions are the best times to start companies! We always invest in downturns! There are fewer competitors, and you get a better caliber of entrepreneur! Dollars can stretch further because salaries and rents are lower! We’re not looking to take a company public for years, so why would we run our companies based on the public markets and macro economy?”
Her thesis is that because VC performance is evaluated on ten-year cycles, they never really corrected after the public market bust in 2001-2002.  With declining returns, VCs are reluctant to write checks without a resilient growth category defying the current conditions.  Certainly she is not alone in this opinion.

On the other hand, however, the respected ReadWriteWeb's COO Bernard Lunn takes the diametrically opposite view and declares in his headline "VC Investment in Internet Deals Did NOT Fall Off A Cliff".

How can that be?  Writes Lunn: 
What interests us at ReadWriteWeb is the small subset that is (a) seed- and early-stage, and (b) Internet-specific. So we drilled into those numbers. Q1 2009 saw 34 deals, with a total of $138 million invested. Is that good or bad? Well, 34 companies getting their first investment round is one helluva celebration for 34 entrepreneurs, their teams, and their investors.

How about 15 deals worth $76 million in Q2 2003? That was actually the lowest in the 53 quarters tracked by MoneyTree.

If you want to be positive, then, our position now is twice as good as it was in Q2 2003. So here is an alternative headline:

"VC investment in Internet startups is up 100% from last downturn".
So this is sophistry, but there is a point to it. This most recent boom cycle, at its peak in 4Q07, recorded $454 million investment in early-stage internet deals, as contrast to $4.5 Billion in 1Q00. Less than 10% is in play this time around, so, as Lunn puts it, "we don't have as far to fall".

No one is denying that the trend is down, but we're inclined to the RWW view that while total number of deals and amount invested have both declined from the peak, there's far more reason to be optimistic than otherwise.

Friday, April 10, 2009

Monterey Bay Innovation Showcase Webcast

We had a great time in Watsonville last week with the launch of our live video webcast series showcasing great companies from communities throughout California.  As part of the California Business Ascent business competition, we will be presenting more than 300 of the greatest companies you never heard of.

Each company will have the opportunity to present to a panel of investors in a casual cafe setting, get feedback and advice, and perhaps have follow-on meetings.  The companies then go on to a regional final to determine who will be among more than 50 companies competing at the statewide final in San Diego November 17-18.

The next showcase webcast is April 23, from the Davis City Council Chambers, featuring some exciting companies from the Yolo County area.  Follow the excitement!

California Business Ascent: The Solution to Create Sustainable Jobs

News about the economy seems gloomier. Unemployment rates rising, small businesses and multi-national corporations failing, foreclosure numbers increasing, the banking industry in turmoil, and the stock market unstable. What is needed is sustainable job creation to stem the tide of this difficult economic cycle. Yet many economic think-tank leaders and policymakers talk at the 50,000-foot level about innovation and federal stimulus funding as the panacea for our woes but don’t provide much in terms of a practical solution to accelerate economic recovery at the grass roots level.  

It is important to point out that an economic recovery solution exists. The solution, as it always has been in this country, rests on the shoulders of innovative, locally owned businesses run by visionary entrepreneurs. They exist in every region and community in the United States, rural or urban, inland or coastal, northern or southern. Golden Capital Network has coined a term to describe these companies: GLOBIEs. GLOBIEs are businesses that provide products and services that create new industry categories, grow existing ones, or capture more of an industry’s market share, thereby growing their businesses, generating revenue, creating jobs and stimulating new tax revenue. GLOBIEs can be startup companies, emerging growth companies, or mature enterprises with existing international or global market presence. They all start small, but many of them grow big and become market leading companies in their industries.

Some historic examples of GLOBIEs include companies like Hewlett Packard, Intel and Computer Science Corporation. Hewlett Packard was founded by Stanford classmates Bill Hewlett and Dave Packard in a Palo Alto garage. The first product they built was an audio oscillator. They sold eight their first year to Walt Disney, generating $5,369 in revenue. Many know the story of Bob Noyce and Gordon Moore, who founded Intel after leaving Fairchild semi-conductors. They decided to write a business plan and asked Art Rock, who helped start Fairchild and became an early venture capitalist, for funding. In 2 days, they lined up $2.5M. Their first commercial product was a memory chip which was mildly successful. Soon after, Intel was approached by a Japanese calculator company, asking them to make 12 chips. Intel ended up making one chip, performing like 12, revolutionizing the computer industry forever. Computer Science Corporation was founded in 1959 by Roy Nutt and Fletcher Jones with $100. They wanted to make it easier to use computers. The company quickly became highly reputable amongst computer users, and in 1961, contracted with NASA, launching CSC in the space business. These three companies each had very humble beginnings that went on to become long-standing industry leaders, creating thousands of jobs in California and globally. It is the next wave of GLOBIEs who will bring California out of its current economic downturn.

Where do GLOBIEs belong in the discussion about economic recovery and growth? Very high! These are the companies that can transform the local economic landscape. But, there seems to be little or no talk about making these innovation-based entrepreneurial businesses the focal point of our economic development strategy at the local, state or national levels. That is disturbing, in that there are thousands of multi-billion dollar global markets these businesses penetrate every day with their goods and services. Every time a GLOBIE makes a sale in a national or global market, new revenue is brought back to the GLOBIE’s home community.

A recent survey of Golden Capital Network alumni GLOBIEs confirmed that they have had substsantial job creation impact in their communities over the past several years, and are still doing so today. Whether an economy is in an up or down cycle, there are four opportunities for GLOBIEs to emerge and excel, including:
  1. Tapping into a geography that has a growing need for a GLOBIEs product or service 
  2. Creating a new industry category, or capturing a larger share of an existing industry sector 
  3. Providing a compelling solution for governments, businesses or consumers that either saves money, increases value, or makes things more efficient 
  4. Creating a diversion from the day-to-day grind of life
For example, Santa Rosa-based Tri-Access Technologies demonstrates that GLOBIEs are tapping into new geographies when it recently opened an office in Opoh, Malaysia. This fabless semiconductor company is accelerating the rapid deployment of advanced digital video and high-speed data in CATV,Telco and Wireless networks. The company’s products enable economic and system design efficiencies through integration and higher performance. It opened its Malaysia office to facilitate its global operations and further strengthen its relationships with suppliers, packaging houses and customers located in the Asia-Pacific region. Many of the company’s supply partners and more than half of its customers are located in or have major operations in the Asia-Pacific. TriAccess' growth plans include key personnel additions at its headquarters in Santa Rosa, such as highly-specialized RF applications engineers, internal operations specialists, and customer-facing sales professionals.

Another company, Sentilla Corporation, a provider of demand-side energy management solutions for commercial and industrial facilities, recently announced that it has opened its first European office in London, UK. The move strengthens Sentilla’s global presence and gives enterprises in the UK and Europe direct access to the company’s innovative technology, which can dramatically cut carbon footprint and energy costs. Sentilla, backed by Wavepoint Ventures and others, recently secured $7.5 million in Series B financing, after launching its patent-pending energy management technology in May 2008. Its platform can be embedded into virtually any system to provide insight into real world conditions at the source of power consumption.

Brammo Motorsports of Oregon is part of a group of innovative GLOBIEs that are creating a whole new industry category: electric motorcycles. Brammo is gearing up to begin production on its Enertia electric motorcycle. The Enertia is a carbon fiber-intensive two-wheeler that stores its power in large format, lithium-phosphate battery packs from Valence. The company has doubled its workforce to 28 and will build up to 50 or more employees soon as its gets ready to begin assembly. Starting in May, five Best Buy stores near the west coast will begin stocking the Enertia.

In Anderson, California, a rural community located 2 and ½ hours north of Sacramento, a high tech start-up company called Shasta Crystals estimates it will create up to 80 jobs in the near future. The company has created a revolutionary approach to making crystals that are used to create “visible lasers”, used as light sources for miniature projectors in products like cell phones, laptops and game consoles, and saves its customers significant time and money on manufacturing crystals.

These alumni companies provide just a few examples of how GLOBIEs are positively impacting the economy by reaching new geographic markets; creating new industry categories; saving businesses, consumers or governments money; or by enhancing our quality of life. Now consider that at GCN we deal with just a small number of GLOBIE companies, almost exclusively in California. Imagine if there was a focus on adding value to these companies in communities, regions and states across the entire U.S.! The impact would be phenomenal. Local, state and federal job creation efforts should focus on GLOBIEs because they represent by far the greatest opportunity for accelerating economic recovery and growth and creating sustainable jobs.

GLOBIEs have very clear needs: 
  1. access to all forms of risk capital
  2. access to talent, from skilled technicians and labor workers, to executive management, to boards of directors and informal advisors with specialized industry or functional expertise
  3. access to professional services such as those associated with intellectual property, finance and accounting, risk management, marketing and sales, executive search, web development, and many others
  4. access to business development whether it be through channel partners, VARs and other strategic partners all the way up to customers themselves
  5. access to peers to share war stories, offer strategic advice, and form new alliances. 
The common denominator is people. Businesses successfully start, and successfully grow, when the right combination of people with complimentary skill sets come together with a shared vision to capitalize on a market opportunity.
The challenge for GLOBIEs is four-fold. This is where economic development efforts can step in and add value. First, the GLOBIE “ecosystem” does not naturally self-align in a community or region. GLOBIEs frequently operate in isolation without access to the critical resources they need.

Second, GLOBIEs require access to very specific domain expertise and talent. The essential critical mass of expertise and resources does not exist within specific industry sectors in most communities.

Third, most of a GLOBIE’s customers exist outside of their community, as well as the strategic resources and investment capital necessary to get to the customers.

Finally, most GLOBIEs are hard to find. Press releases posted on their websites and issued to the media rarely reach their intended audience. GLOBIEs almost never appear in their own local media. In most cases, individuals, organizations and businesses who could add value to these companies don’t even know they exist, even though they are located right in their own back yard.

A mindset shift about economic development approaches and a repositioning of energy and resources to focus on this sector of the economy is required. A city, county, local economic development organization, chamber of commerce or other community-based organization can enable GLOBIEs to become more visible. Find your established GLOBIEs; create methods to draw out the new ones; segment GLOBIEs by industry sector; use events to bring GLOBIEs together with capital sources, professional services, and executive talent; create local media partnerships to generate visibility for them; establish a web portal through which GLOBIE profiles and information can easily be accessed; create a system to track the connections that emerge through your efforts along with basic economic data on the GLOBIEs so you can measure progress; and align with a broader statewide effort to provide critical non-local connections and visibility. You can have a major impact on your local economy by helping GLOBIEs in this manner.

Golden Capital Network has spent years serving as a virtual bridge between policymakers and private sector ingenuity. Through this unique relationship, GCN is able to deliver a solution for local policymakers, civic and business leaders: The California Business Ascent.

Golden Capital Network, in partnership with the California Business Transportation and Housing Agency and CALED, has launched the California Business Ascent initiative as an easy-to-implement, cost effective solution that enables community leaders to help GLOBIEs in their community. We strongly believe that a community’s path to economic recovery and sustainable job creation will accelerate through the Business Ascent initiative. To find out more about how to become a California Business Ascent community, visit www.goldencapital.net

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Lights, Camera, Action!

We’re very happy to announce the public launch of the California Business Ascent video webcast series, showcasing the most exciting startups you’ve never heard of. For ten years we’ve introduced more than a thousand early stage ventures to our network of active investors at dozens of Golden Capital Venture Capital conferences throughout California and Nevada, and more than $1.6 Billion has been invested in our alumni.

Now we're taking it to the web, live and direct. We are planning an ambitious program of 50 entrepreneur showcase webcasts in 2009 from locations throughout California, culminating in a final competition in San Diego this November with 50 regional finalists vying for cash awards, investor traction, and the title of the Most Innovative Startup in California.

“We’ve been showing recorded elevator pitches on our Business Ascent social network, and some other sites have followed suit,” said Jim Mikles, Executive Producer of the webcast series, “but this is the first program that presents entrepreneurs pitching their companies in a real-time, competitive format to potentially hundreds of investors screening the deal flow online.”

Our first live program is this Thursday, April 2, starting at 4PM PDT, from the Monterey Bay Innovation Showcase in Watsonville, in the heart of the Monterey Bay region. A panel of six leading angel and venture investors will discuss “Raising Capital in Challenging Times”, followed by ten-minute presentations by seven sensational startups.

If you want a ringside seat to learn more about the next wave of entrepreneurs emerging from the nation’s most innovative state, join the webcast by visiting http://businessascent.com/go/webcast

Saturday, March 21, 2009

88X ROI


We've been watching some talks from the recent TED conference.  For those who may be unfamiliar with this program, it is an annual colloquium of the brightest and most imaginative thinkers, thought leaders, and overachievers from the worlds of Technology, Entertainment, and Design, discussing "Ideas worth spreading".

Juan Enriquez, Managing Director with Excel Medical Ventures and the CEO and Chairman of Biotechonomy, gave a fascinating presentation examining the economic meltdown, specifying strategies for recovery, and concluding with a look at some emerging innovations in life science technology presaging the emergence of "homo evolutis"; a humankind that takes an active role in its own evolution.

In the course of his talk, about seven minutes in, he made a remarkable observation about the impact of venture investment in the economy.  He said that investment in startups represented about .02% of GDP, whereas venture-backed companies produced 17% of GDP.  He mentioned it in passing as he transitioned from a laundry list of necessary cuts to public expenditure to areas where spending must be increased, but it certainly caught our attention.

Then we saw a similar observation in the Economist special report on entrepreneurship we discussed last week, and we tracked down the source.  As it happens, it comes from VentureImpact, a research paper commissioned by the National Venture Capital Association, and prepared by Global Insight with data provided by Content First.  The actual proportion of GDP invested in early stage companies in 2006 was .2%, and the output was 17.6%, which translates to a staggering 88x return on investment.

The study also documents
 that these companies
 produced more than
 10 million jobs, and over 2 trillion dollars in revenue that year, and the trend over the previous 6 years was consistently increasing.  Venture-backed firms also significantly outperformed the economy as a whole, producing more than three times the compound annual growth of jobs (3.6% vs. 1.4%) and nearly twice the growth in revenues (11.8% vs. 6.5%).

We've been on the lookout for solid evidence of our central thesis -- that the most effective strategy for economic development is innovation and entrepreneurship -- and this research certainly provides meaningful support for it.  The study was published in 2007, and analyzed more than 23,000 venture-backed companies.  An update to the study is in process, and is expected this June.  We look forward to it with eager anticipation.

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Required Reading

When I was in college, guys usually pretended they were in a band. Now they pretend they are in a start-up.

In the March 14th edition of The Economist, a special report on entrepreneurship offers a comprehensive analysis of our favorite subject.  Authored by Washington bureau chief Adrian Wooldridge, the report is a collection of nine articles examining virtually every facet of innovation-driven new enterprise.  Wooldridge cites our friends at the Kauffman Foundation in defining entrepreneurial companies as specifically innovative, as contrasted to replicative, businesses.

The leading article, Global Heroes, explodes the "five myths" about entrepreneurialism.  These include:
  • Entrepreneurs are "orphans and outcasts"; solitary, antisocial nerds making widgets in isolation
Entrepreneurs may be more independent than the usual suits who merely follow the rules, but they almost always need business partners and social networks to succeed.
  • Entrepreneurs are young.
The Kauffman Foundation examined 652 American-born bosses of technology companies set up in 1995-2005 and found that the average boss was 39 when he or she started. The number of founders over 50 was twice as large as that under 25.
  • Entrepreneurship is driven by venture capital
Monitor, a management consultancy that has recently conducted an extensive survey of entrepreneurs, emphasises the importance of “angel” investors, who operate somewhere in the middle ground between venture capitalists and family and friends. They usually have some personal connection with their chosen entrepreneur and are more likely than venture capitalists to invest in a business when it is little more than a budding idea.
  • Entrepreneurs must create world-changing new technology
Sir Ronald Cohen, the founder of Apax Partners, one of Europe’s most successful venture-capital companies, points out that some of the most successful entrepreneurs concentrate on processes rather than products. Richard Branson made flying less tedious by providing his customers with entertainment. Fred Smith built a billion-dollar business by improving the delivery of packages. Oprah Winfrey has become America’s richest self-made woman through successful brand management.
  • Entrepreneurship cannot occur in large companies
Many big companies work hard to keep their people on their entrepreneurial toes. Johnson & Johnson operates like a holding company that provides financial muscle and marketing skills to internal entrepreneurs. Jack Welch tried to transform General Electric from a Goliath into a collection of entrepreneurial Davids. Jorma Ollila transformed Nokia, a long-established Finnish firm, from a maker of rubber boots and cables into a mobile-phone giant; his successor as boss of the company, Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo, is now talking about turning it into an internet company.

Just as importantly, big firms often provide start-ups with their bread and butter. In many industries, especially pharmaceuticals and telecoms, the giants contract out innovation to smaller companies. Procter & Gamble tries to get half of its innovations from outside its own labs. Microsoft works closely with a network of 750,000 small companies around the world. Some 3,500 companies have grown up in Nokia’s shadow.
As we've pointed out before, an economic downturn is a good time to start businesses.  Wooldridge notes that it is also an opportune time for growing entrepreneurial businesses.  Citing a study from Endeavor, entrepreneurs surveyed forecast that "their businesses would grow by 31% and their workforces by 12% this year. Half of them thought they would be able to hire better people and 39% said there would be less competition."

In addition to this overview, additional articles in the report include:
  • Managing entrepreneurship
  • Time for entrepreneurship
  • The United States of Entrepreneurs
  • Entrepreneurs in India and China
  • Lands of opportunity
  • The formula for entrepreneurship
  • Entrepreneurs doing good
  • The entrepreneurial society
Anyone professing an interest in innovation and entrepreneurship will be significantly better informed after reading this authoritative analysis.